Ramblings of a Jackhole

[photopress:Standings.2007_08_25_1.GIF,full,alignleft]Despite Newman and Earnhardt both finishing in the top seven, their Chase chances pulled away due to Kurt Busch’s 6th place finish.

Bristol’s Saturday night race planted those in the top twelve, even more firmly in the top twelve. Earnhardt was able to gain a scant 5 points to 12th place while Newman fell 4. points further behind leaving them 158 and 175 points, respectively, out of the Chase. The only “bright light” is that Both Truex and Harvick fell in points leaving them both less than 10 points away from 12th place. The means that if any of the 10-12th place drivers have an early DNF at the next two races, and either Ryan or Dale Jr. can capitalize on such a DNF either, or both, could be right back into the Chase.

Therefore, my 80 points a race window expands to 100 points or more as the possibility of a quick jump is more realistic as there are at least three dirvers who could fall “out of the chase” (four if you count Bowyer who is only 223 points ahead of Jr.).

However, what did change more than anything else is the number of drivers “locked into the Chase”. The top seven are more than 323 points (the maximum he could possibly gain on a single driver who starts the next two races) ahead of 13th place Junior and are therefor are locked into the Chase. Those are Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin (despite his DNF Saturday night), Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Burton.

Conversely, only eight drivers drivers have a mathematical chance of getting on eof the five spots left in the chase (with Kyle Busch only needing to finish 36th or better in the next race to guarantee a”lock” into the Chase). Bowyer needs a finish of at least 134 points (10th place or 11th place if he leads a lap to be guaranteed a “lock.” Harvick and Truex would “lock” with a win next race as would Kurt Busch (but only if he leaded the most laps or Junior didn’t finish 2nd).

Of course, if NASCAR fines one of more of the drivers (even those “locked in”) they could be out of the Chase. Remember, Kurt Busch’s 100 point fine not too long ago.

But it’s looking pretty grim for Newman and Earnhardt. And Greg Biffle will be locked out of the Chase if Kurt Busch finishes 41st or better in the next race, which is highly likely.

Most likely the top 12 will stay in the Chase, barring a DNF or a significant point penalty on one or more of Kurt Busch, Martin Truex Jr. or Kevin Harvick.

I hear the fat lady warming up. Let’s see if she lets loose Sunday after the race!

[photopress:Standings.2007_08_21.GIF,full,alignright]After a long soggy wait, including red flags for rain and even fog, the Michigan race was finally completed today.

Kurt Busch, who lead the most laps, took the checkered flag along with 195 points. However, as Martin Truex Jr., 11th in the standings, finished second, this limited Kurt Busch to only a 25 point gain to Truex, leaving Kurt 33 points out of 11th place.

Third place finisher Jimmy Johnson was able to leapfrog Jeff Burton into the sixth in the standings after Burton’s 14th place finish.

Other than than Johnson and Burton swapping places, all top 12 drivers remained in the same position as last week.

Ryan Newman, fell a lap down late in the race due pit road issues related to fixing of his “shark fin.” However, while his pit crew were a bit slow, Newman’s car wasn’t. He quickly passed six other lap down cars to gain the “Lucky Dog” spot and returned to lead lap just in the nick of time due to a yellow flag at lap 190 (remember, with less than 10 laps remaining, no lucky dog is given). But due to a “quickie yellow” (where all cars pit including lap down cards), Ryan was still in turn three was the rest of the field took the green with six laps remaining leaving him stranded in 20th position, despite logging speeds as fast or faster than the leaders. Biffle spun at lap 199 of 200, bringing out another yellow, allowing Ryan to catch up to the field. After the restart for a green-white-checkered finish, Newman gained six spots, salvaging a 14th place finish.

However this still dropped Newman in the standings from 13th to 14th, 8 points behind now 13th placed Dale Earnhart Jr., but more devastatingly, 171 points behind Michigan winner Kurt Busch who is in 12th place after starting the day less than 100 points behind Kurt.

As Jeff Gordon is the only driver ahead of 12th place Kurt Busch by 483 points (the maximum possible point differential one driver could receive), those in second place to nineteenth are mathematically contenders. However, it was be unlikely for a driver to gain more than 80 points a race therefore those within 240 points of Kurt Busch are in “the Bubble.” Those are, Jimmie Johnson (6th), Jeff Burton (7th), Kyle Busch (8th), Clint Bowyer (9th), Kevin Harvick (10th), Martin Truex Jr. (11th), Kurt Busch (12th), and two drivers on the outside looking in, Dale Earnhardt Jr. (13th) and Ryan Newman (14th), leaving nine drivers in the “hunt” with only three races to the Chase left.

Junior and Newman are respectively 163 and 171 points out of 12th place and both need three consecutively outstanding races to get into the Chase.

The next race is Saturday night at Bristol. The Jackhole assumes that this race will narrow the Bubble to six drivers or so. But as he thought we’d be down to eight and have nine still remaining you’ll have to check in next week!

Key for the above picture
Green = Clinched for the Chase (assuming they start every race)
Yellow = Eligible for the Chase (assuming they start every race)
Red = Out of the Chase

Here are the current Nextel Cup 2007 Standings

[photopress:Standings.2007_08_12_1_2.JPG,full,alignleft]Green = Clinched for the Chase (assuming they start every race)
Yellow = Eligible for the Chase (assuming they start every race)
Red = Out of the Chase

As you can see Jeff Gordan is guaranteed a spot in the Chase and the only thing he needs to concern himself is winning races to get those 10 bonus points for the Chase. As the difference between 1st and 43th can be as much as 161 points, assuming one could gain (or lose) up to 80 points a race (320 total points) is not unreasonable. Therefore the driver that are more than 320 points above Kurt Busch (who is in the 12th and final place) are near “locks”, those three Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart.

However, those in the 320 window on either side of Kurt Busch are Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Casey Mears, Jamie McMurray.

These 13 drivers are those that the Jackhole considers a still true “contenders” for the chase. However, Michigan should narrow the contenders greatly. I would except the window of 80 points a race theory to narrow this down to a scant 8 drivers. So tune in early next week to see if that is the case!