Ramblings of a Jackhole

Wow NASACR!  Sunday night brought some surprises.  Drivers that should have been able to lock themselves in failed to so do and those that one would have thought would be out of it, still have a shot.

Here are the current top twenty:

One driver, Denny Hamlin, was able to lock himself into the chase and join Tony Steward, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordan as the four locked into the Chase.  And on the downside, Bowyer and Ambrose are “locked out” following their finishes at Atlanta.  Probably the biggest surprise was David Reutimann who kept himself into the chase by earning 28 more points than Matt Kenseth, currently 12th in the standings.

That leaves a surprisingly large number of driver still able to “mathematically” get into the chase.  There are now still eleven drivers who are still vying for the eight remaining spots.  As a winner, who lead the most laps, will receive only 195 points , it is possible to calculate the points a driver must earn to guarantee him a spot in the Chase EVEN IF thirteenth place driver Brian Vickers accomplishes just that.

Those currently “in” the Chase would need to earn the following points (as well as the associated finishes, both without and with the five bonus points for leading a lap) to guarantee a spot in the Chase, regardless of the points Brian Vickers receives on Saturday.

Conversely, the bottom three stand like this:

Only Brian Vickers can guarantee himself a spot in the Chase by winning the race AND leading the most laps.  If he does this and EVEN IF Kenseth finishes second AND receives the five bonus points for leading a lap, they would tie and BOTH Kenseth and Vickers would get into the Chase.  However, for Kyle Busch, and even more so for Reutimann, earning a place in the Chase will take not only a good finish, but a poor finish from one or more of the drivers currently “in” the Chase.

Unfortunately for Reutimann, even if he receives the maximum 195 points this Saturday, he would need each of the three drivers in front of him to finish the following, or worse.  Kenseth – 34th,  Vickers – 27th and Kyle Busch – 21st.  So, it looks like Reutimann’s chances are slim to none.  That mean in reality, there are likely only ten drivers looking at the remaining eight spots.

Clearly 12th place driver Matt Kenseth is as much on the “bubble” as is Vickers and Kyle Busch.  However, none of the 5th-11th place drivers are “safe” and all will likely be having trouble sleeping this week.

Now, the Jackhole is a huge Ryan Newman fan, and while he isn’t locked in, the Jackhole is thinking that Ryan has a darn good chance.  Even IF Ryan has an AWFUL race and finishes 35th, he’d STILL be in the race if ANY TWO of the following drivers have the following finishes:

Now even if Ryan finishes mid-pack at 22nd, he would be guaranteed to tie with Kyle Busch (even if Kyle wins and leads the most laps) and only ONE of the following drivers would need to have the following finish (or worse):

So go Rocketman RYAN!  I hope you have a good race or, at least, at least two of the above “bubble” drivers have a bad race as well!  It’s hard to cheer against a driver but us Newman fans REALLY don’t want Vickers to get those 195 points as that’ll force Ryan to have to finish 16th or better to “lock” in to the Chase (and not need other teams to do poorly).

In short, if Vickers doesn’t win on Saturday, Ryan can finish 22nd without needing others to not win or have a certain finish.  If the winner isn’t Kyle Busch or Vickers, then Ryan needs to finish either 23rd or 24th+5 bonus points or better to “lock in”.

Again, WOW NASCAR!  The Chase format sure is keeping things exciting these last few weeks.  Hopefully the ten weeks after that will living up to this excitement!

Yep, we’re down to two races left for the start of the “Chase” for the 2009 NASCAR season.  To remind you, the top twelve NASCAR racers have their points “reset” and then are given 10 extra points for each win and then race for the championship for the last 10 races.

Currently Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are first through third respectively and all are mathematically locked in to the Chase.  You should now see them be willing to “win or wreck” and the end of the next two races.  No points racing for these guys.

Now, if a racer wins the race and leads the most laps he will receive 195 points.  However, even the guy that comes in 43 without leading any laps, receives 34 points.  Therefore the race winner can gain 161 points on the 43 place guy.  Of course, it is highly unlikely that even if a racer who is currently “out of the Chase” (13th or worse in the points) wins the race after leading the most laps, the racer currently in 12th place finishes 43rd, especially in light of all of the “start and park” racers.  For example, if the 12th place guy finishes in 30th position in the race, a winner that lead the most laps will gain 122 points on the 30th place finisher, 73 points on the 25th place finisher, and 58 points on the 20th place finisher (assuming none of these received the 5 bonus points for leading a lap).  Therefore it is hard to imagine gaining much more than 80-100 points or so in a race on another driver fighting to get into the Chase.

Currently the top 24 looks like this:

The mathematically “locked in” drivers are in green and the mathematically “locked out” drivers are in red.  Yes, Junior fans, he will NOT be in the Chase this year.

In the worst case scenario for those currently in the Chase is for Kyle Busch (the current 13th place driver) to win the next two races after leading the most laps.  Even if this happens, the 4th-8th place drivers can still guarantee themselves a spot by having an average finish of the following positions (without leading laps in either race) in the next two races: Hamlin 27th, Edwards 22nd, Kurt Busch 21st, Newman 5th, Biffle 4th.  Montoya, Martin, Kahne, and Kenseth cannot “guarantee” themselves a spot by their finish if this happens. In fact, those 4th-6th can mathematically “lock” into the Chase with the following finishes at Atlanta (without/with leading a lap):  Hamlin (23rd/25th), Edwards (13th/15th), Kurt Busch (11th/12th).

So, it’s high likely that Hamlin, Edwards and Kurt Busch are in the Chase.  The “Currently In Bubble Drivers” who are at risk of falling out are Newman, Biffle, Montoya, Martin, Kahne and Kenseth.

The “On the Out and Looking Drivers” are Kyle Busch, Vickers, Bowyers, Ruetimann and Ambrose.  In the best case scenario for each of these drivers is to win the next two races after leading the most laps. If this happens for either Kyle Busch and Vickers, they will be guaranteed a spot in the Chase. For the 15th-17th place drivers, even if they do win both of the next races after leading the most laps they would need Kenseth to have an average finish of the following (or worse) to get into the chase (and Kenseth not leading any laps):  Bowyer (Kenseth 9th), Ruetimann (Kenseth 17th), Ambrose (Kenseth 41st).

With the “start and park” drivers taking the 40th-43rd positions, coupled with the fact that he must win BOTH of the next races on top of that, Ambrose is essentially out of the chase, leaving Kyle Busch, Vickers, Bowyer and Ruetimann as the rest of the “Bubble” drivers.

That means ten drivers are true “Bubble” drivers are vying for the six remaining spots.  Again, here they are:

It is unlikely that any of these drivers will be able to lock themselves into the Chase without a top five finish coupled with a few of the others on the bubble doing poorly.  It will take a 161 point lead over the 13th placed driver after Atlanta to mathematically guarantee you a spot in the Chase.

That is extremely difficult.  For example, of these ten, the guy with the best chance of “locking in” after Atlanta is Ryan Newman.  However, even if Ryan Newman gets 160 points (e.g. a fourth place finish) at Atlanta, to get that 161 point lead over 13th two of the following must happen:

Even if Ryan takes all 195 points in the Atlanta race (winning after leading the most laps) he’d need two of the following seven things to happen:

Conversely, top five finishes or top ten with one of those “Currently In” drivers having a 30th or worst finish, are near requirements for Ruetimann and Bowyer to have even a chance at the race.

In other words, it it unlikely that anyone else will “lock in” to the Chase following Atlanta, but Ruetimann and Bowyer could certainly be locked out after Atlanta.

Odds are we’ll see after Atlanta that at least eight drivers have a shot at the last six Chase spots.

Kudos to NASCAR in getting this new format.  It’s certainly exciting now!

The Jackhole is a Ryan Newman fan.  Ryan, after all has an engineering degree from Purdue and found something unique to do with his engineering degree. Being a Racer!

The Jackhole too has an engineering degree (also from a Big 10 school) and found something unique to do with his engineering degree.  Being a Jackhole!

Anywho, with all the news that Ryan has “verbally” agreed to drive for the new Stewart-Haas team (or is that the Haas-Stewart team?) the Jackhole did a bit of Internet searching on if this might be true or not.

Ryan’s Fan club domain name is currently Ryan12Newman.com.    As he won’t be driving the #12 next year, the Jackhole was wondering if he (or more likely someone that works for his fan club) has registered a new domain name.  Now ryan39newman.com was registered on June 27, 2008.   However Ryan drove the #39 for Penske in the Busch/Nationwide series.  This is registered to a Ken O’Lone at 1615 Ashley Downs Dr in Apex, NC and lists a Tara Anderson at the same address as the administrative contact. The #39 car hasn’t been driven in Cup series since 2005 when Stremme drove it in four races.  If memory serves me correctly I think Ryan may have also driven a #39 car in open wheel races.  So the #39 is not unreasonable as Ryan’s possible new car number.

But even more interesting is that Ryan4Newman.com was also registered on July 26th, 2008 by this duo.  This is about the same time Ryan reportedly made an “oral agreement” with Tony Stewart.

Is Ken and or Tara working for Ryan’s Fan Club as Apex, NC is not that far from Mooresville, NC (Ryan’s fan club home)?  Or are they possibly planning on trying to sell this domain name to Ryan?

If they work for Ryan’s Fan Club, does this mean that Ryan will be driving the #4 next year with Tony driving the #14?  The #4 car is not running this year and was last run by Ward Burton in 2007.  And the #4 and #14 is a nice pair of car number to run (like the #2 and #12 Penske has (ignoring the #77 of course)).

Or are Ken and Tara working on a hunch (or inside information?) and betting on getting some cash for the Ryan4Newman.com domain?  Of course, they COULD be offering to donate this domain to Ryan’s fan club and simply trying to prevent someone else from “cybersquatting” this domain.  So the Jackhole isn’t ready to jump to any conclusions, nor should his readers.

Let’s keep an eye out for the announcement and see how this all plays out!

[photopress:Standings.2007_08_25_1.GIF,full,alignleft]Despite Newman and Earnhardt both finishing in the top seven, their Chase chances pulled away due to Kurt Busch’s 6th place finish.

Bristol’s Saturday night race planted those in the top twelve, even more firmly in the top twelve. Earnhardt was able to gain a scant 5 points to 12th place while Newman fell 4. points further behind leaving them 158 and 175 points, respectively, out of the Chase. The only “bright light” is that Both Truex and Harvick fell in points leaving them both less than 10 points away from 12th place. The means that if any of the 10-12th place drivers have an early DNF at the next two races, and either Ryan or Dale Jr. can capitalize on such a DNF either, or both, could be right back into the Chase.

Therefore, my 80 points a race window expands to 100 points or more as the possibility of a quick jump is more realistic as there are at least three dirvers who could fall “out of the chase” (four if you count Bowyer who is only 223 points ahead of Jr.).

However, what did change more than anything else is the number of drivers “locked into the Chase”. The top seven are more than 323 points (the maximum he could possibly gain on a single driver who starts the next two races) ahead of 13th place Junior and are therefor are locked into the Chase. Those are Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin (despite his DNF Saturday night), Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Burton.

Conversely, only eight drivers drivers have a mathematical chance of getting on eof the five spots left in the chase (with Kyle Busch only needing to finish 36th or better in the next race to guarantee a”lock” into the Chase). Bowyer needs a finish of at least 134 points (10th place or 11th place if he leads a lap to be guaranteed a “lock.” Harvick and Truex would “lock” with a win next race as would Kurt Busch (but only if he leaded the most laps or Junior didn’t finish 2nd).

Of course, if NASCAR fines one of more of the drivers (even those “locked in”) they could be out of the Chase. Remember, Kurt Busch’s 100 point fine not too long ago.

But it’s looking pretty grim for Newman and Earnhardt. And Greg Biffle will be locked out of the Chase if Kurt Busch finishes 41st or better in the next race, which is highly likely.

Most likely the top 12 will stay in the Chase, barring a DNF or a significant point penalty on one or more of Kurt Busch, Martin Truex Jr. or Kevin Harvick.

I hear the fat lady warming up. Let’s see if she lets loose Sunday after the race!

[photopress:Standings.2007_08_21.GIF,full,alignright]After a long soggy wait, including red flags for rain and even fog, the Michigan race was finally completed today.

Kurt Busch, who lead the most laps, took the checkered flag along with 195 points. However, as Martin Truex Jr., 11th in the standings, finished second, this limited Kurt Busch to only a 25 point gain to Truex, leaving Kurt 33 points out of 11th place.

Third place finisher Jimmy Johnson was able to leapfrog Jeff Burton into the sixth in the standings after Burton’s 14th place finish.

Other than than Johnson and Burton swapping places, all top 12 drivers remained in the same position as last week.

Ryan Newman, fell a lap down late in the race due pit road issues related to fixing of his “shark fin.” However, while his pit crew were a bit slow, Newman’s car wasn’t. He quickly passed six other lap down cars to gain the “Lucky Dog” spot and returned to lead lap just in the nick of time due to a yellow flag at lap 190 (remember, with less than 10 laps remaining, no lucky dog is given). But due to a “quickie yellow” (where all cars pit including lap down cards), Ryan was still in turn three was the rest of the field took the green with six laps remaining leaving him stranded in 20th position, despite logging speeds as fast or faster than the leaders. Biffle spun at lap 199 of 200, bringing out another yellow, allowing Ryan to catch up to the field. After the restart for a green-white-checkered finish, Newman gained six spots, salvaging a 14th place finish.

However this still dropped Newman in the standings from 13th to 14th, 8 points behind now 13th placed Dale Earnhart Jr., but more devastatingly, 171 points behind Michigan winner Kurt Busch who is in 12th place after starting the day less than 100 points behind Kurt.

As Jeff Gordon is the only driver ahead of 12th place Kurt Busch by 483 points (the maximum possible point differential one driver could receive), those in second place to nineteenth are mathematically contenders. However, it was be unlikely for a driver to gain more than 80 points a race therefore those within 240 points of Kurt Busch are in “the Bubble.” Those are, Jimmie Johnson (6th), Jeff Burton (7th), Kyle Busch (8th), Clint Bowyer (9th), Kevin Harvick (10th), Martin Truex Jr. (11th), Kurt Busch (12th), and two drivers on the outside looking in, Dale Earnhardt Jr. (13th) and Ryan Newman (14th), leaving nine drivers in the “hunt” with only three races to the Chase left.

Junior and Newman are respectively 163 and 171 points out of 12th place and both need three consecutively outstanding races to get into the Chase.

The next race is Saturday night at Bristol. The Jackhole assumes that this race will narrow the Bubble to six drivers or so. But as he thought we’d be down to eight and have nine still remaining you’ll have to check in next week!

Key for the above picture
Green = Clinched for the Chase (assuming they start every race)
Yellow = Eligible for the Chase (assuming they start every race)
Red = Out of the Chase

Here are the current Nextel Cup 2007 Standings

[photopress:Standings.2007_08_12_1_2.JPG,full,alignleft]Green = Clinched for the Chase (assuming they start every race)
Yellow = Eligible for the Chase (assuming they start every race)
Red = Out of the Chase

As you can see Jeff Gordan is guaranteed a spot in the Chase and the only thing he needs to concern himself is winning races to get those 10 bonus points for the Chase. As the difference between 1st and 43th can be as much as 161 points, assuming one could gain (or lose) up to 80 points a race (320 total points) is not unreasonable. Therefore the driver that are more than 320 points above Kurt Busch (who is in the 12th and final place) are near “locks”, those three Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart.

However, those in the 320 window on either side of Kurt Busch are Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Casey Mears, Jamie McMurray.

These 13 drivers are those that the Jackhole considers a still true “contenders” for the chase. However, Michigan should narrow the contenders greatly. I would except the window of 80 points a race theory to narrow this down to a scant 8 drivers. So tune in early next week to see if that is the case!