Ramblings of a Jackhole

Wow NASACR!  Sunday night brought some surprises.  Drivers that should have been able to lock themselves in failed to so do and those that one would have thought would be out of it, still have a shot.

Here are the current top twenty:

One driver, Denny Hamlin, was able to lock himself into the chase and join Tony Steward, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordan as the four locked into the Chase.  And on the downside, Bowyer and Ambrose are “locked out” following their finishes at Atlanta.  Probably the biggest surprise was David Reutimann who kept himself into the chase by earning 28 more points than Matt Kenseth, currently 12th in the standings.

That leaves a surprisingly large number of driver still able to “mathematically” get into the chase.  There are now still eleven drivers who are still vying for the eight remaining spots.  As a winner, who lead the most laps, will receive only 195 points , it is possible to calculate the points a driver must earn to guarantee him a spot in the Chase EVEN IF thirteenth place driver Brian Vickers accomplishes just that.

Those currently “in” the Chase would need to earn the following points (as well as the associated finishes, both without and with the five bonus points for leading a lap) to guarantee a spot in the Chase, regardless of the points Brian Vickers receives on Saturday.

Conversely, the bottom three stand like this:

Only Brian Vickers can guarantee himself a spot in the Chase by winning the race AND leading the most laps.  If he does this and EVEN IF Kenseth finishes second AND receives the five bonus points for leading a lap, they would tie and BOTH Kenseth and Vickers would get into the Chase.  However, for Kyle Busch, and even more so for Reutimann, earning a place in the Chase will take not only a good finish, but a poor finish from one or more of the drivers currently “in” the Chase.

Unfortunately for Reutimann, even if he receives the maximum 195 points this Saturday, he would need each of the three drivers in front of him to finish the following, or worse.  Kenseth – 34th,  Vickers – 27th and Kyle Busch – 21st.  So, it looks like Reutimann’s chances are slim to none.  That mean in reality, there are likely only ten drivers looking at the remaining eight spots.

Clearly 12th place driver Matt Kenseth is as much on the “bubble” as is Vickers and Kyle Busch.  However, none of the 5th-11th place drivers are “safe” and all will likely be having trouble sleeping this week.

Now, the Jackhole is a huge Ryan Newman fan, and while he isn’t locked in, the Jackhole is thinking that Ryan has a darn good chance.  Even IF Ryan has an AWFUL race and finishes 35th, he’d STILL be in the race if ANY TWO of the following drivers have the following finishes:

Now even if Ryan finishes mid-pack at 22nd, he would be guaranteed to tie with Kyle Busch (even if Kyle wins and leads the most laps) and only ONE of the following drivers would need to have the following finish (or worse):

So go Rocketman RYAN!  I hope you have a good race or, at least, at least two of the above “bubble” drivers have a bad race as well!  It’s hard to cheer against a driver but us Newman fans REALLY don’t want Vickers to get those 195 points as that’ll force Ryan to have to finish 16th or better to “lock” in to the Chase (and not need other teams to do poorly).

In short, if Vickers doesn’t win on Saturday, Ryan can finish 22nd without needing others to not win or have a certain finish.  If the winner isn’t Kyle Busch or Vickers, then Ryan needs to finish either 23rd or 24th+5 bonus points or better to “lock in”.

Again, WOW NASCAR!  The Chase format sure is keeping things exciting these last few weeks.  Hopefully the ten weeks after that will living up to this excitement!

Yep, we’re down to two races left for the start of the “Chase” for the 2009 NASCAR season.  To remind you, the top twelve NASCAR racers have their points “reset” and then are given 10 extra points for each win and then race for the championship for the last 10 races.

Currently Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are first through third respectively and all are mathematically locked in to the Chase.  You should now see them be willing to “win or wreck” and the end of the next two races.  No points racing for these guys.

Now, if a racer wins the race and leads the most laps he will receive 195 points.  However, even the guy that comes in 43 without leading any laps, receives 34 points.  Therefore the race winner can gain 161 points on the 43 place guy.  Of course, it is highly unlikely that even if a racer who is currently “out of the Chase” (13th or worse in the points) wins the race after leading the most laps, the racer currently in 12th place finishes 43rd, especially in light of all of the “start and park” racers.  For example, if the 12th place guy finishes in 30th position in the race, a winner that lead the most laps will gain 122 points on the 30th place finisher, 73 points on the 25th place finisher, and 58 points on the 20th place finisher (assuming none of these received the 5 bonus points for leading a lap).  Therefore it is hard to imagine gaining much more than 80-100 points or so in a race on another driver fighting to get into the Chase.

Currently the top 24 looks like this:

The mathematically “locked in” drivers are in green and the mathematically “locked out” drivers are in red.  Yes, Junior fans, he will NOT be in the Chase this year.

In the worst case scenario for those currently in the Chase is for Kyle Busch (the current 13th place driver) to win the next two races after leading the most laps.  Even if this happens, the 4th-8th place drivers can still guarantee themselves a spot by having an average finish of the following positions (without leading laps in either race) in the next two races: Hamlin 27th, Edwards 22nd, Kurt Busch 21st, Newman 5th, Biffle 4th.  Montoya, Martin, Kahne, and Kenseth cannot “guarantee” themselves a spot by their finish if this happens. In fact, those 4th-6th can mathematically “lock” into the Chase with the following finishes at Atlanta (without/with leading a lap):  Hamlin (23rd/25th), Edwards (13th/15th), Kurt Busch (11th/12th).

So, it’s high likely that Hamlin, Edwards and Kurt Busch are in the Chase.  The “Currently In Bubble Drivers” who are at risk of falling out are Newman, Biffle, Montoya, Martin, Kahne and Kenseth.

The “On the Out and Looking Drivers” are Kyle Busch, Vickers, Bowyers, Ruetimann and Ambrose.  In the best case scenario for each of these drivers is to win the next two races after leading the most laps. If this happens for either Kyle Busch and Vickers, they will be guaranteed a spot in the Chase. For the 15th-17th place drivers, even if they do win both of the next races after leading the most laps they would need Kenseth to have an average finish of the following (or worse) to get into the chase (and Kenseth not leading any laps):  Bowyer (Kenseth 9th), Ruetimann (Kenseth 17th), Ambrose (Kenseth 41st).

With the “start and park” drivers taking the 40th-43rd positions, coupled with the fact that he must win BOTH of the next races on top of that, Ambrose is essentially out of the chase, leaving Kyle Busch, Vickers, Bowyer and Ruetimann as the rest of the “Bubble” drivers.

That means ten drivers are true “Bubble” drivers are vying for the six remaining spots.  Again, here they are:

It is unlikely that any of these drivers will be able to lock themselves into the Chase without a top five finish coupled with a few of the others on the bubble doing poorly.  It will take a 161 point lead over the 13th placed driver after Atlanta to mathematically guarantee you a spot in the Chase.

That is extremely difficult.  For example, of these ten, the guy with the best chance of “locking in” after Atlanta is Ryan Newman.  However, even if Ryan Newman gets 160 points (e.g. a fourth place finish) at Atlanta, to get that 161 point lead over 13th two of the following must happen:

Even if Ryan takes all 195 points in the Atlanta race (winning after leading the most laps) he’d need two of the following seven things to happen:

Conversely, top five finishes or top ten with one of those “Currently In” drivers having a 30th or worst finish, are near requirements for Ruetimann and Bowyer to have even a chance at the race.

In other words, it it unlikely that anyone else will “lock in” to the Chase following Atlanta, but Ruetimann and Bowyer could certainly be locked out after Atlanta.

Odds are we’ll see after Atlanta that at least eight drivers have a shot at the last six Chase spots.

Kudos to NASCAR in getting this new format.  It’s certainly exciting now!